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Deportivo Paraguayo vs Deportivo Muñiz — Primera C 2026

Deportivo Paraguayo
Deportivo Paraguayo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Muñiz
Deportivo Muñiz
8/5/2024Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 5Estadio José María Moraños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Deportivo Paraguayo32%
×Draw31%
Deportivo Muñiz37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Paraguayo
0.96
Deportivo Muñiz
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 47 away

creates per match

Deportivo Paraguayo
0.57
Deportivo Muñiz
0.83

allows per match

Deportivo Paraguayo
1.28
Deportivo Muñiz
1.34

finishing

Deportivo Paraguayo+0.00on par
Deportivo Muñiz+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Paraguayo ↓

Deportivo Muñiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Paraguayo or draw
63%
Deportivo Paraguayo or Deportivo Muñiz
69%
Draw or Deportivo Muñiz
68%

Winning margin

Deportivo Paraguayo wins by 2+
12%
Deportivo Muñiz wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Deportivo Paraguayo 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo Paraguayo 2+ goals
25%
Deportivo Paraguayo 3+ goals
7%
Deportivo Muñiz 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Muñiz 2+ goals
28%
Deportivo Muñiz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Paraguayo (draw refunded)
47%
Deportivo Muñiz (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Paraguayo at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Deportivo Muñiz away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Paraguayo attack 0.57 + Deportivo Muñiz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.96

Deportivo Muñiz attack 0.83 + Deportivo Paraguayo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Paraguayo scores more
32%
level
31%
Deportivo Muñiz scores more
37%

Deportivo Muñiz at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Muñiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Deportivo Paraguayo 0–2 Deportivo Muñiz

Deportivo Muñiz beat Deportivo Paraguayo 2-0 in Primera C on August 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José María Moraños in La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.