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Deportivo Ocotal vs Matagalpa — Primera Division 2026

Deportivo Ocotal
Deportivo Ocotal
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Matagalpa
Matagalpa
2/25/2024Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 6Estadio Roy Fernando Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Deportivo Ocotal45%
×Draw26%
Matagalpa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Ocotal
1.44
Matagalpa
1.09

Deportivo Ocotal creates 32% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 78 away

creates per match

Deportivo Ocotal
1.20
Matagalpa
1.15

allows per match

Deportivo Ocotal
1.04
Matagalpa
1.68

finishing

Deportivo Ocotal+0.00on par
Matagalpa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Ocotal ↓

Matagalpa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Ocotal or draw
71%
Deportivo Ocotal or Matagalpa
74%
Draw or Matagalpa
55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Ocotal wins by 2+
22%
Matagalpa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Ocotal 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Ocotal 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Ocotal 3+ goals
18%
Matagalpa 1+ goals
66%
Matagalpa 2+ goals
30%
Matagalpa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Ocotal (draw refunded)
61%
Matagalpa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Ocotal at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 110 matches

Matagalpa away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Ocotal attack 1.20 + Matagalpa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Matagalpa attack 1.15 + Deportivo Ocotal defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Ocotal scores more
45%
level
26%
Matagalpa scores more
29%

Deportivo Ocotal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Ocotal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Deportivo Ocotal 3–2 Matagalpa

Deportivo Ocotal beat Matagalpa 3-2 in Primera Division on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Roy Fernando Bermúdez in Ocotal.