Deportivo Ocotal 1–0 Chinandega: Result & Stats

Deportivo Ocotal

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chinandega

E. Aguirre 80'

3/19/2020

Primera Division · Clausura - 9Estadio Roy Fernando Bermúdez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Deportivo Ocotal54%

×Draw25%

Chinandega21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo OcotalExpected goals in this matchChinandega

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.90

Deportivo Ocotal

1.60

Chinandega

0.90

Deportivo Ocotal creates 78% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 35 away

1.21

creates per match

0.74

1.05

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Deportivo Ocotal

1.21

Chinandega

0.74

allows per match

Deportivo Ocotal

1.05

Chinandega

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Ocotal+0.00on par

Chinandega+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Ocotal ↓

Chinandega →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Ocotal or draw

79%

Deportivo Ocotal or Chinandega

75%

Draw or Chinandega

46%

Winning margin

Deportivo Ocotal wins by 2+

29%

Chinandega wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Ocotal 1+ goals

80%

Deportivo Ocotal 2+ goals

47%

Deportivo Ocotal 3+ goals

22%

Chinandega 1+ goals

59%

Chinandega 2+ goals

23%

Chinandega 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Ocotal (draw refunded)

72%

Chinandega (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Ocotal at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 109 matches

Chinandega away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Ocotal attack 1.21 + Chinandega defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Chinandega attack 0.74 + Deportivo Ocotal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deportivo Ocotal scores more

54%

level

25%

Chinandega scores more

21%

Deportivo Ocotal at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Deportivo Ocotal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

V. Escoto← D. Velasquez

58'

L. Bonilla← E. Tobal

65'

J. Pastrana← K. Meraz

73'

A. Rodríguez← J. Moncada

80'

E. Aguirre

87'

J. Torres← A. Melendez

Deportivo

Chinandega

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Clavasquín

46'▲V. Escoto←▼D. Velasquez

65'▲J. Pastrana←▼K. Meraz

73'▲A. Rodríguez←▼J. Moncada

Deportivo Ocotal substitutes

EscotoPastranaRodríguezBatallaUrtechoInestrozaMercado

Manager: R. Espinoza

58'▲L. Bonilla←▼E. Tobal

87'▲J. Torres←▼A. Melendez

Chinandega substitutes

BonillaTorresGómezChavarríaQuiñonesRodríguezJiménez