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Deportivo Muñiz vs Atletico Atlas — Primera C 2026

Deportivo Muñiz
Deportivo Muñiz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Atlas
Atletico Atlas
2/4/2024Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 1Estadio Ricardo Puga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Deportivo Muñiz39%
×Draw28%
Atletico Atlas33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Muñiz
1.22
Atletico Atlas
1.09

Deportivo Muñiz creates 12% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 104 away

creates per match

Deportivo Muñiz
1.09
Atletico Atlas
1.07

allows per match

Deportivo Muñiz
1.11
Atletico Atlas
1.35

finishing

Deportivo Muñiz+0.00on par
Atletico Atlas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Muñiz ↓

Atletico Atlas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Muñiz or draw
67%
Deportivo Muñiz or Atletico Atlas
72%
Draw or Atletico Atlas
61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Muñiz wins by 2+
17%
Atletico Atlas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportivo Muñiz 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Muñiz 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Muñiz 3+ goals
12%
Atletico Atlas 1+ goals
66%
Atletico Atlas 2+ goals
30%
Atletico Atlas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Muñiz (draw refunded)
54%
Atletico Atlas (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Muñiz at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Atletico Atlas away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Muñiz attack 1.09 + Atletico Atlas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Atletico Atlas attack 1.07 + Deportivo Muñiz defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Muñiz scores more
39%
level
28%
Atletico Atlas scores more
33%

Deportivo Muñiz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Muñiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Muñiz vs Atletico Atlas

Deportivo Muñiz beat Atletico Atlas 2-1 in Primera C on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ricardo Puga in General Rodríguez, Provincia de Buenos Aires.