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Deportivo Municipal vs Molinos El Pirata — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Molinos El Pirata
Molinos El Pirata
5/26/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 15Estadio Ivan Elias Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Deportivo Municipal57%
×Draw23%
Molinos El Pirata20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Municipal
1.83
Molinos El Pirata
0.97

Deportivo Municipal creates 89% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 17 away

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.24
Molinos El Pirata
0.76

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.19
Molinos El Pirata
2.41

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par
Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Molinos El Pirata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw
80%
Deportivo Municipal or Molinos El Pirata
77%
Draw or Molinos El Pirata
43%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
33%
Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
84%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
54%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
28%
Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals
62%
Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals
25%
Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
74%
Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Molinos El Pirata away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.24 + Molinos El Pirata defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.83

Molinos El Pirata attack 0.76 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more
57%
level
23%
Molinos El Pirata scores more
20%

Deportivo Municipal at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Municipal vs Molinos El Pirata

Deportivo Municipal beat Molinos El Pirata 5-0 in Primera División on May 26, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ivan Elias Moreno in Lima.