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Deportivo Municipal vs Deportiva Agropecuaria — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
CANC
00:00
Deportiva Agropecuaria
Deportiva Agropecuaria
8/15/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Promotion Round - 2Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Deportivo Municipal43%
×Draw27%
Deportiva Agropecuaria30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Municipal
1.33
Deportiva Agropecuaria
1.07

Deportivo Municipal creates 24% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 24 away

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.00
Deportiva Agropecuaria
0.92

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.22
Deportiva Agropecuaria
1.67

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par
Deportiva Agropecuaria+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Deportiva Agropecuaria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw
70%
Deportivo Municipal or Deportiva Agropecuaria
73%
Draw or Deportiva Agropecuaria
57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
20%
Deportiva Agropecuaria wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
38%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
15%
Deportiva Agropecuaria 1+ goals
66%
Deportiva Agropecuaria 2+ goals
29%
Deportiva Agropecuaria 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
59%
Deportiva Agropecuaria (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Deportiva Agropecuaria away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.67 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.00 + Deportiva Agropecuaria defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Deportiva Agropecuaria attack 0.92 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more
43%
level
27%
Deportiva Agropecuaria scores more
30%

Deportivo Municipal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo Municipal host Deportiva Agropecuaria

August 15, 2024: Deportivo Municipal take on Deportiva Agropecuaria in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Deportivo Municipal host Deportiva Agropecuaria at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.