Deportivo Municipal 4–1 Cienciano: Result & Stats

Deportivo Municipal

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Cienciano

P. Erustes 89'

D. Cabrera 84'

J. Céspedes 41'

C. Olascuaga 4'

D. La Torre 59'

10/7/2023

Primera División · Clausura - 17Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Deportivo Municipal41%

×Draw26%

Cienciano32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MunicipalExpected goals in this matchCienciano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.20

Deportivo Municipal

1.39

Cienciano

1.20

Deportivo Municipal creates 16% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 106 away

1.24

creates per match

1.21

1.19

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.24

Cienciano

1.21

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.19

Cienciano

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Cienciano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Cienciano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw

68%

Deportivo Municipal or Cienciano

74%

Draw or Cienciano

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

19%

Cienciano wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

40%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

16%

Cienciano 1+ goals

70%

Cienciano 2+ goals

34%

Cienciano 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

56%

Cienciano (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.24 + Cienciano defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Cienciano attack 1.21 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more

41%

level

26%

Cienciano scores more

32%

Deportivo Municipal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Pérez

Deportivo Municipal · M

8.3

Match Events

4'

C. Olascuaga↳ M. Pérez

38'

Carlos Olascuaga

41'

J. Céspedes↳ C. Olascuaga

54'

Leonardo Rugel

59'

D. La Torre↳ C. Beltrán

65'

Jorge Toledo

72'

Pablo ErustesPenalty cancelled

73'

Koichi Aparicio

75'

G. González← I. Santillán

75'

D. Carando← C. Torrejón

76'

Jhosep Nuñez

79'

A. Yáñez← E. Correa

84'

D. Cabrera↳ P. Erustes

89'

P. Erustes↳ M. Pérez

90+2'

F. Rodríguez← C. Olascuaga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoCienciano

Overview

33%Possession67%

12Total Shots14

3Corners9

21Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots14

6On Target4

3Off Target6

3Blocked4

10Inside Box8

2Outside Box6

Passing

33%Possession67%

207Total Passes389

131Accurate Passes329

63%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls9

4Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4

Match Recap: Deportivo Municipal vs Cienciano

Deportivo Municipal beat Cienciano 4-1 in Primera División on October 7, 2023.

Goals: C. Olascuaga (4'), J. Céspedes (41'), D. La Torre (59'), D. Cabrera (84'), P. Erustes (89').

Cienciano controlled possession (67%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.

Deportivo Municipal vs Cienciano — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Deportivo Municipal vs Cienciano