Deportivo Municipal 0–3 Cesar Vallejo

Deportivo Municipal

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Cesar Vallejo

A. Ramírez 90+3'

E. Benítez 45'

E. Ciucci 21' (OG)

9/16/2023

Primera División · Clausura - 13Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Deportivo Municipal42%

×Draw27%

Cesar Vallejo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MunicipalExpected goals in this matchCesar Vallejo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.09

Deportivo Municipal

1.31

Cesar Vallejo

1.09

Deportivo Municipal creates 20% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 98 away

1.24

creates per match

1.00

1.19

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.24

Cesar Vallejo

1.00

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.19

Cesar Vallejo

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Cesar Vallejo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw

69%

Deportivo Municipal or Cesar Vallejo

73%

Draw or Cesar Vallejo

58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

19%

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

73%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

14%

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals

66%

Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals

30%

Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

57%

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.24 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.00 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more

42%

level

27%

Cesar Vallejo scores more

31%

Deportivo Municipal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Pérez

Deportivo Municipal · M

7.7

Match Events

3'

Matías Pérez García

21'

E. CiucciOwn goal

28'

Aldair Fuentes

45'

E. Benítez↳ J. Vélez

46'

J. Núñez← C. Olascuaga

47'

Renzo Garces

59'

Edgar Benítez

65'

Maximo Rabines

67'

R. Quinteros← O. Noronha

69'

Jhosep Nuñez

70'

D. Moyano← D. Cabrera

73'

74'

76'

84'

87'

S. González← J. Vélez

89'

A. Ramírez← A. Fuentes

90+3'

A. Ramírez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoCesar

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots9

5Corners2

7Fouls24

Shots

12Total Shots9

3On Target6

5Off Target3

4Blocked0

7Inside Box8

5Outside Box1

Passing

48%Possession52%

377Total Passes419

273Accurate Passes320

72%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls24

2Yellow Cards6

0Offsides3

Primera División: Deportivo Municipal 0–3 Cesar Vallejo

Cesar Vallejo beat Deportivo Municipal 3-0 in Primera División on September 16, 2023.

Goals: E. Ciucci (21' o.g.), E. Benítez (45'), A. Ramírez (90+3').

Cesar Vallejo controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.

Deportivo Municipal vs Cesar Vallejo — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Deportivo Municipal 0–3 Cesar Vallejo