Deportivo Municipal 0–3 Ayacucho FC: Result & Stats

Deportivo Municipal

FT

0 – 3

Ayacucho FC

7/22/2024

Segunda División · Round 18Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Deportivo Municipal40%

×Draw25%

Ayacucho FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MunicipalExpected goals in this matchAyacucho FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.33

Deportivo Municipal

1.43

Ayacucho FC

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 29 away

1.00

creates per match

1.45

1.22

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.00

Ayacucho FC

1.45

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.22

Ayacucho FC

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Ayacucho FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw

65%

Deportivo Municipal or Ayacucho FC

75%

Draw or Ayacucho FC

60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

19%

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

42%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

17%

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals

74%

Ayacucho FC 2+ goals

38%

Ayacucho FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

53%

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Ayacucho FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.86 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.00 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ayacucho FC attack 1.45 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more

40%

level

25%

Ayacucho FC scores more

35%

Deportivo Municipal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff