Deportivo Municipal vs Ayacucho FC

Deportivo Municipal

PST

20:00

Ayacucho FC

9/20/2020

Primera División · Clausura - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Deportivo Municipal45%

×Draw26%

Ayacucho FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MunicipalExpected goals in this matchAyacucho FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.13

Deportivo Municipal

1.49

Ayacucho FC

1.13

Deportivo Municipal creates 32% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 104 away

1.24

creates per match

1.06

1.19

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.24

Ayacucho FC

1.06

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.19

Ayacucho FC

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Ayacucho FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw

71%

Deportivo Municipal or Ayacucho FC

74%

Draw or Ayacucho FC

55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

22%

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

77%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

44%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

19%

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals

68%

Ayacucho FC 2+ goals

31%

Ayacucho FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

61%

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Ayacucho FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.74 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.24 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.49

Ayacucho FC attack 1.06 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more

45%

level

26%

Ayacucho FC scores more

29%

Deportivo Municipal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff