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Deportivo Municipal vs Alianza Atletico — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
6/3/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 18Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Deportivo Municipal46%
×Draw27%
Alianza Atletico27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Municipal
1.43
Alianza Atletico
1.04

Deportivo Municipal creates 38% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 93 away

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.24
Alianza Atletico
0.89

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal
1.19
Alianza Atletico
1.61

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par
Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Alianza Atletico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw
73%
Deportivo Municipal or Alianza Atletico
73%
Draw or Alianza Atletico
54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
22%
Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
17%
Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
65%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
28%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
63%
Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.61 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.24 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Alianza Atletico attack 0.89 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more
46%
level
27%
Alianza Atletico scores more
27%

Deportivo Municipal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Municipal vs Alianza Atletico

Deportivo Municipal beat Alianza Atletico 2-1 in Primera División on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.