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Deportivo Moron vs Ferro Carril Oeste — Primera Nacional 2026

Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Moron
Preview
18:00
Ferro Carril Oeste
Ferro Carril Oeste
7/26/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 22Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano
Big match
42%
Deportivo Moron
model favours
42%30%28%

Ferro Carril Oeste are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Deportivo Moron42%
×Draw30%
Ferro Carril Oeste28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Moron
1.17
Ferro Carril Oeste
0.88

Deportivo Moron creates 33% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 137 away

creates per match

Deportivo Moron
1.13
Ferro Carril Oeste
1.06

allows per match

Deportivo Moron
0.69
Ferro Carril Oeste
1.20

finishing

Deportivo Moron+0.00on par
Ferro Carril Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Moron ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Moron or draw
72%
Deportivo Moron or Ferro Carril Oeste
70%
Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste
58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Moron wins by 2+
18%
Ferro Carril Oeste wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Moron 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Moron 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Moron 3+ goals
11%
Ferro Carril Oeste 1+ goals
59%
Ferro Carril Oeste 2+ goals
22%
Ferro Carril Oeste 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Moron (draw refunded)
61%
Ferro Carril Oeste (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Moron at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.69 · 126 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.20 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Moron attack 1.13 + Ferro Carril Oeste defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ferro Carril Oeste attack 1.06 + Deportivo Moron defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Moron scores more
42%
level
30%
Ferro Carril Oeste scores more
28%

Deportivo Moron at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Moron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Ferro Carril Oeste have won 6 in a row
  • Ferro Carril Oeste have won 5 of the last 7 meetings
  • 69% of Ferro Carril Oeste’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Deportivo Moron 3 vs Ferro Carril Oeste 1
  • Ferro Carril Oeste score first in 62% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Moron
DLLWW
Oeste
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Moron vs Ferro Carril Oeste — Match Preview

Deportivo Moron face Ferro Carril Oeste on July 26, 2026 in this Primera Nacional fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Deportivo Moron host Ferro Carril Oeste at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.