Deportivo Moron 2–3 Ferro Carril Oeste

Deportivo Moron

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Ferro Carril Oeste

D. Akerman 90+2' (pen)

G. Villalba 43'

C. Maidana 87'

N. Gómez 27'

A. Schönfeld 20' (OG)

12/12/2020

Primera Nacional · Upper Table Round - 3Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Deportivo Moron42%

×Draw30%

Ferro Carril Oeste28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MoronExpected goals in this matchFerro Carril Oeste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.88

Deportivo Moron

1.17

Ferro Carril Oeste

0.88

Deportivo Moron creates 33% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 137 away

1.13

creates per match

1.06

0.69

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Deportivo Moron

1.13

Ferro Carril Oeste

1.06

allows per match

Deportivo Moron

0.69

Ferro Carril Oeste

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Moron+0.00on par

Ferro Carril Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Moron ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Moron or draw

72%

Deportivo Moron or Ferro Carril Oeste

70%

Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste

58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Moron wins by 2+

18%

Ferro Carril Oeste wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Moron 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo Moron 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo Moron 3+ goals

11%

Ferro Carril Oeste 1+ goals

59%

Ferro Carril Oeste 2+ goals

22%

Ferro Carril Oeste 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Moron (draw refunded)

61%

Ferro Carril Oeste (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Moron at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.69 · 126 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.20 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Moron attack 1.13 + Ferro Carril Oeste defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ferro Carril Oeste attack 1.06 + Deportivo Moron defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Moron scores more

42%

level

30%

Ferro Carril Oeste scores more

28%

Deportivo Moron at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Moron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

C. Bordacahar← F. Pulicastro

20'

A. SchönfeldOwn goal

25'

27'

30'

38'

43'

45'

45+1'

46'

61'

66'

J. D'Angelo← D. Glaby

70'

A. Salvador← A. Schönfeld

70'

S. Sala← G. Villalba

71'

81'

C. Maidana← M. Ramírez

81'

L. Souto← C. Bordacahar

84'

F. Gómez← M. Ledesma

84'

D. Akerman← N. Martínez

85'

87'

90+3'

90+4'

90+2'

D. AkermanPenalty

Deportivo

Ferro

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Villalba

Manager: S. Sibelli

66'▲J. D'Angelo←▼D. Glaby

70'▲A. Salvador←▼A. Schönfeld

70'▲S. Sala←▼G. Villalba

84'▲F. Gómez←▼M. Ledesma

84'▲D. Akerman←▼N. Martínez

Deportivo Moron substitutes

D'AngeloSalvadorSalaGómezAkermanBontempoMansilla

Manager: J. Cordón

15'▲C. Bordacahar←▼F. Pulicastro

46'▲D. Chávez←▼W. Busse

61'▲G. Díaz←▼R. Mazur

81'▲C. Maidana←▼M. Ramírez

81'▲L. Souto←▼C. Bordacahar

Ferro Carril Oeste substitutes

BordacaharChávezDíazMaidanaSoutoBailoMurillo

Match Recap: Deportivo Moron vs Ferro Carril Oeste

Ferro Carril Oeste beat Deportivo Moron 3-2 in Primera Nacional on December 12, 2020.

Goals: A. Schönfeld (20' o.g.), N. Gómez (27'), G. Villalba (43'), C. Maidana (87'), D. Akerman (90+2' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano in Morón, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Deportivo Moron vs Ferro Carril Oeste — Primera Nacional 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Moron vs Ferro Carril Oeste