Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Moron vs Chaco For Ever — Primera Nacional 2026

Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Moron
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chaco For Ever
Chaco For Ever
5/31/2025Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 17Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Deportivo Moron49%
×Draw31%
Chaco For Ever20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Moron
1.17
Chaco For Ever
0.64

Deportivo Moron creates 83% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 83 away

creates per match

Deportivo Moron
1.16
Chaco For Ever
0.57

allows per match

Deportivo Moron
0.70
Chaco For Ever
1.18

finishing

Deportivo Moron+0.00on par
Chaco For Ever+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Moron ↓

Chaco For Ever →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Deportivo Moron or draw
80%
Deportivo Moron or Chaco For Ever
69%
Draw or Chaco For Ever
51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Moron wins by 2+
21%
Chaco For Ever wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo Moron 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Moron 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Moron 3+ goals
11%
Chaco For Ever 1+ goals
47%
Chaco For Ever 2+ goals
14%
Chaco For Ever 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Moron (draw refunded)
71%
Chaco For Ever (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Moron at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.70 · 129 matches

Chaco For Ever away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.18 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Moron attack 1.16 + Chaco For Ever defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Chaco For Ever attack 0.57 + Deportivo Moron defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Moron scores more
49%
level
31%
Chaco For Ever scores more
20%

Deportivo Moron at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Moron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Moron vs Chaco For Ever

Deportivo Moron beat Chaco For Ever 2-1 in Primera Nacional on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano in Moron.