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Deportivo Moron vs Brown DE Adrogue — Primera Nacional 2026

Deportivo Moron
Deportivo Moron
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Brown DE Adrogue
Brown DE Adrogue
9/28/2021Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 27Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Deportivo Moron44%
×Draw31%
Brown DE Adrogue25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Moron
1.14
Brown DE Adrogue
0.77

Deportivo Moron creates 48% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 97 away

creates per match

Deportivo Moron
1.15
Brown DE Adrogue
0.85

allows per match

Deportivo Moron
0.69
Brown DE Adrogue
1.13

finishing

Deportivo Moron+0.00on par
Brown DE Adrogue+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Moron ↓

Brown DE Adrogue →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Deportivo Moron or draw
75%
Deportivo Moron or Brown DE Adrogue
69%
Draw or Brown DE Adrogue
56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Moron wins by 2+
19%
Brown DE Adrogue wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Moron 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Moron 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo Moron 3+ goals
11%
Brown DE Adrogue 1+ goals
54%
Brown DE Adrogue 2+ goals
18%
Brown DE Adrogue 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Moron (draw refunded)
64%
Brown DE Adrogue (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Moron at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.69 · 130 matches

Brown DE Adrogue away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.13 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Moron attack 1.15 + Brown DE Adrogue defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Brown DE Adrogue attack 0.85 + Deportivo Moron defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Moron scores more
44%
level
31%
Brown DE Adrogue scores more
25%

Deportivo Moron at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Moron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Deportivo Moron 0–2 Brown DE Adrogue

Brown DE Adrogue beat Deportivo Moron 2-0 in Primera Nacional on September 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano in Morón, Provincia de Buenos Aires.