Deportivo Metalurgico 0–1 Everton La Plata

Deportivo Metalurgico

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Everton La Plata

8/23/2025

Torneo Promocional Amateur · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Deportivo Metalurgico41%

×Draw30%

Everton La Plata29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MetalurgicoExpected goals in this matchEverton La Plata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.91

Deportivo Metalurgico

1.16

Everton La Plata

0.91

Deportivo Metalurgico creates 27% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

1.18

creates per match

0.95

0.86

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Deportivo Metalurgico

1.18

Everton La Plata

0.95

allows per match

Deportivo Metalurgico

0.86

Everton La Plata

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Metalurgico+0.00on par

Everton La Plata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Metalurgico ↓

Everton La Plata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Metalurgico or draw

71%

Deportivo Metalurgico or Everton La Plata

70%

Draw or Everton La Plata

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Metalurgico wins by 2+

18%

Everton La Plata wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo Metalurgico 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo Metalurgico 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Metalurgico 3+ goals

11%

Everton La Plata 1+ goals

60%

Everton La Plata 2+ goals

23%

Everton La Plata 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Metalurgico (draw refunded)

59%

Everton La Plata (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Metalurgico at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Everton La Plata away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Metalurgico attack 1.18 + Everton La Plata defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

Everton La Plata attack 0.95 + Deportivo Metalurgico defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Metalurgico scores more

41%

level

30%

Everton La Plata scores more

29%

Deportivo Metalurgico at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Metalurgico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff