Deportivo Metalurgico 0–0 Estrella de Berisso

Deportivo Metalurgico

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estrella de Berisso

8/12/2024

Torneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 4Estadio Municipal de Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Deportivo Metalurgico47%

×Draw27%

Estrella de Berisso25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MetalurgicoExpected goals in this matchEstrella de Berisso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.93

Deportivo Metalurgico

1.38

Estrella de Berisso

0.93

Deportivo Metalurgico creates 48% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

1.18

creates per match

1.00

0.86

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Deportivo Metalurgico

1.18

Estrella de Berisso

1.00

allows per match

Deportivo Metalurgico

0.86

Estrella de Berisso

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Metalurgico+0.00on par

Estrella de Berisso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Metalurgico ↓

Estrella de Berisso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Metalurgico or draw

75%

Deportivo Metalurgico or Estrella de Berisso

73%

Draw or Estrella de Berisso

53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Metalurgico wins by 2+

23%

Estrella de Berisso wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Metalurgico 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo Metalurgico 2+ goals

40%

Deportivo Metalurgico 3+ goals

16%

Estrella de Berisso 1+ goals

61%

Estrella de Berisso 2+ goals

24%

Estrella de Berisso 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Metalurgico (draw refunded)

65%

Estrella de Berisso (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Metalurgico at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Estrella de Berisso away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Metalurgico attack 1.18 + Estrella de Berisso defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Estrella de Berisso attack 1.00 + Deportivo Metalurgico defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Metalurgico scores more

47%

level

27%

Estrella de Berisso scores more

25%

Deportivo Metalurgico at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Metalurgico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff