Deportivo Merlo vs UAI Urquiza — Primera B Metropolitana 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 103+ matches
Deportivo Merlo40%
UAI Urquiza31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Deportivo Merlo creates 18% more chances
Season form · 103 home / 139 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportivo Merlo ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportivo Merlo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 103 matches
UAI Urquiza away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 139 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportivo Merlo attack 1.00 + UAI Urquiza defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16
UAI Urquiza attack 0.90 + Deportivo Merlo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Deportivo Merlo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Merlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Tristan Suarez
ComunicacionesUAI Urquiza
JJ Urquiza
Acassuso
Villa San Carlos
Almirante Brown
Flandria
Los Andes
Colegiales
San Telmo
Defensores Unidos
San Miguel
Argentino Quilmes
Sacachispas
Deportivo Armenio
Talleres Remedios
FénixAlmirante BrownVilla San CarlosComunicacionesTalleres RemediosJJ UrquizaSan TelmoTristan SuarezLos AndesDefensores UnidosDeportivo ArmenioFlandriaAcassusoUAI UrquizaArgentino QuilmesSan MiguelFénixColegialesSacachispasIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Deportivo Merlo host UAI Urquiza on Monday, 29 September 2025 at 23:00. The match is part of the Primera B Metropolitana 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Deportivo Merlo vs UAI Urquiza
UAI Urquiza beat Deportivo Merlo 2-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on September 29, 2025.
Goals: M. Brito (4'), L. Arcuri (47'), N. Zeineddin (72').
The match was played at Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium in Buenos Aires.