Deportivo Merlo 1–2 Dock Sud: Result & Stats

Deportivo Merlo

FT

1 – 2

Dock Sud

9/2/2018

Primera C · Round 3Estadio José Manuel Moreno (Parque San Martín, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Deportivo Merlo38%

×Draw28%

Dock Sud34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MerloExpected goals in this matchDock Sud

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.13

Deportivo Merlo

1.21

Dock Sud

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 75 away

1.29

creates per match

1.20

1.06

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Deportivo Merlo

1.29

Dock Sud

1.20

allows per match

Deportivo Merlo

1.06

Dock Sud

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Merlo+0.00on par

Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Merlo ↓

Dock Sud →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Merlo or draw

66%

Deportivo Merlo or Dock Sud

72%

Draw or Dock Sud

62%

Winning margin

Deportivo Merlo wins by 2+

16%

Dock Sud wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportivo Merlo 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Merlo 2+ goals

34%

Deportivo Merlo 3+ goals

12%

Dock Sud 1+ goals

68%

Dock Sud 2+ goals

31%

Dock Sud 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Merlo (draw refunded)

53%

Dock Sud (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Merlo at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Merlo attack 1.29 + Dock Sud defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Dock Sud attack 1.20 + Deportivo Merlo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo Merlo scores more

38%

level

28%

Dock Sud scores more

34%

Deportivo Merlo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Merlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff