Deportivo Merlo vs Defensa Y Justicia — Primera Nacional 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Deportivo Merlo44%
Defensa Y Justicia30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Deportivo Merlo creates 26% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportivo Merlo ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportivo Merlo at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches
Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportivo Merlo attack 1.33 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47
Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.00 + Deportivo Merlo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Deportivo Merlo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Merlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
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Central Cordoba de Santiago
Gimnasia M.
Independ. Rivadavia
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Ferro Carril Oeste
Atletico Mitre
Agropecuario
Villa Dalmine
Temperley
Deportivo Moron
Defensores De Belgrano
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Quilmes
Gimnasia Jujuy
Guillermo Brown
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Instituto Cordoba
Santamarina
Chacarita Juniors
Los AndesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Deportivo Merlo host Defensa Y Justicia on Friday, 16 November 2012 at 20:00. The match is part of the Primera Nacional 2026/2027 season.
Primera Nacional: Deportivo Merlo 2–1 Defensa Y Justicia
Deportivo Merlo beat Defensa Y Justicia 2-1 in Primera Nacional on November 16, 2012.
Goals: J. Bravo (45'), N. Acevedo (64'), L. Lázzaro (81').
The match was played at Estadio José Manuel Moreno.