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Deportivo Merlo vs Argentino Quilmes — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Argentino Quilmes
Argentino Quilmes
5/2/2026Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Round 14Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Deportivo Merlo40%
×Draw29%
Argentino Quilmes31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Merlo
1.18
Argentino Quilmes
1.01

Deportivo Merlo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 123 away

creates per match

Deportivo Merlo
1.00
Argentino Quilmes
0.96

allows per match

Deportivo Merlo
1.06
Argentino Quilmes
1.35

finishing

Deportivo Merlo+0.00on par
Argentino Quilmes+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Merlo ↓

Argentino Quilmes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Merlo or draw
69%
Deportivo Merlo or Argentino Quilmes
71%
Draw or Argentino Quilmes
60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Merlo wins by 2+
17%
Argentino Quilmes wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Merlo 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Merlo 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Merlo 3+ goals
12%
Argentino Quilmes 1+ goals
64%
Argentino Quilmes 2+ goals
27%
Argentino Quilmes 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Merlo (draw refunded)
56%
Argentino Quilmes (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Merlo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 103 matches

Argentino Quilmes away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Merlo attack 1.00 + Argentino Quilmes defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Argentino Quilmes attack 0.96 + Deportivo Merlo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Merlo scores more
40%
level
29%
Argentino Quilmes scores more
31%

Deportivo Merlo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Merlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Merlo vs Argentino Quilmes

Deportivo Merlo beat Argentino Quilmes 1-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium in Buenos Aires.