Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Defensor Sporting

Deportivo Maldonado

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Defensor Sporting

3/15/2026

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 6Estadio Domingo Burgueno Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Deportivo Maldonado35%

×Draw29%

Defensor Sporting36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MaldonadoExpected goals in this matchDefensor Sporting

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.15

Deportivo Maldonado

1.13

Defensor Sporting

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 75 away

1.16

creates per match

1.17

1.13

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Deportivo Maldonado

1.16

Defensor Sporting

1.17

allows per match

Deportivo Maldonado

1.13

Defensor Sporting

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Maldonado+0.00on par

Defensor Sporting+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maldonado ↓

Defensor Sporting →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Maldonado or draw

64%

Deportivo Maldonado or Defensor Sporting

71%

Draw or Defensor Sporting

65%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maldonado wins by 2+

14%

Defensor Sporting wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Deportivo Maldonado 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Maldonado 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo Maldonado 3+ goals

11%

Defensor Sporting 1+ goals

68%

Defensor Sporting 2+ goals

32%

Defensor Sporting 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maldonado (draw refunded)

49%

Defensor Sporting (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maldonado at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.13 · 55 matches

Defensor Sporting away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maldonado attack 1.16 + Defensor Sporting defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Defensor Sporting attack 1.17 + Deportivo Maldonado defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportivo Maldonado scores more

35%

level

29%

Defensor Sporting scores more

36%

Defensor Sporting at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Defensor Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff