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Deportivo Maipu vs Sportivo Peñarol — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Maipu
Deportivo Maipu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
1/28/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · South - 16Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti (Maipú, Provincia de Mendoza)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Deportivo Maipu56%
×Draw26%
Sportivo Peñarol18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Maipu
1.52
Sportivo Peñarol
0.74

Deportivo Maipu creates 105% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 62 away

creates per match

Deportivo Maipu
1.39
Sportivo Peñarol
0.87

allows per match

Deportivo Maipu
0.61
Sportivo Peñarol
1.66

finishing

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par
Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maipu ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Maipu or draw
82%
Deportivo Maipu or Sportivo Peñarol
74%
Draw or Sportivo Peñarol
44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+
29%
Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals
20%
Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
52%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
17%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)
75%
Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maipu at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maipu attack 1.39 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.87 + Deportivo Maipu defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Maipu scores more
56%
level
26%
Sportivo Peñarol scores more
18%

Deportivo Maipu at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Maipu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Maipu vs Sportivo Peñarol

Deportivo Maipu beat Sportivo Peñarol 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on January 28, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti (Maipú, Provincia de Mendoza).