Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Maipu vs Sportivo Desamparados — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Maipu
Deportivo Maipu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados
11/3/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 3 - 11Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti (Maipú, Provincia de Mendoza)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Deportivo Maipu54%
×Draw28%
Sportivo Desamparados18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Maipu
1.36
Sportivo Desamparados
0.64

Deportivo Maipu creates 113% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 59 away

creates per match

Deportivo Maipu
1.39
Sportivo Desamparados
0.66

allows per match

Deportivo Maipu
0.61
Sportivo Desamparados
1.34

finishing

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par
Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maipu ↓

Sportivo Desamparados →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Maipu or draw
82%
Deportivo Maipu or Sportivo Desamparados
72%
Draw or Sportivo Desamparados
46%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+
27%
Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals
39%
Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals
16%
Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals
47%
Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals
14%
Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)
76%
Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maipu at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

Sportivo Desamparados away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maipu attack 1.39 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sportivo Desamparados attack 0.66 + Deportivo Maipu defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deportivo Maipu scores more
54%
level
28%
Sportivo Desamparados scores more
18%

Deportivo Maipu at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Deportivo Maipu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Maipu vs Sportivo Desamparados

Deportivo Maipu beat Sportivo Desamparados 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti (Maipú, Provincia de Mendoza).