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Deportivo Maipu vs San Lorenzo Alem — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Maipu
Deportivo Maipu
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
San Lorenzo Alem
San Lorenzo Alem
10/11/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 3 - 7Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti (Maipú, Provincia de Mendoza)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Deportivo Maipu55%
×Draw26%
San Lorenzo Alem20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Maipu
1.53
San Lorenzo Alem
0.80

Deportivo Maipu creates 91% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 12 away

creates per match

Deportivo Maipu
1.39
San Lorenzo Alem
1.00

allows per match

Deportivo Maipu
0.61
San Lorenzo Alem
1.67

finishing

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par
San Lorenzo Alem+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maipu ↓

San Lorenzo Alem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Maipu or draw
80%
Deportivo Maipu or San Lorenzo Alem
74%
Draw or San Lorenzo Alem
45%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+
28%
San Lorenzo Alem wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals
20%
San Lorenzo Alem 1+ goals
55%
San Lorenzo Alem 2+ goals
19%
San Lorenzo Alem 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)
74%
San Lorenzo Alem (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maipu at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

San Lorenzo Alem away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maipu attack 1.39 + San Lorenzo Alem defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

San Lorenzo Alem attack 1.00 + Deportivo Maipu defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportivo Maipu scores more
55%
level
26%
San Lorenzo Alem scores more
20%

Deportivo Maipu at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportivo Maipu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Maipu vs San Lorenzo Alem

Deportivo Maipu beat San Lorenzo Alem 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on October 11, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti (Maipú, Provincia de Mendoza).