Deportivo Maipu 3–2 Gimnasia Jujuy: Result & Stats

Deportivo Maipu

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Gimnasia Jujuy

S. González 90+1'

G. Klusener 89'

S. Moyano 76'

N. Casasola 71'

F. Brandán 64'

4/7/2023

Primera Nacional · Group B - 9Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Deportivo Maipu47%

×Draw29%

Gimnasia Jujuy24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MaipuExpected goals in this matchGimnasia Jujuy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.81

Deportivo Maipu

1.25

Gimnasia Jujuy

0.81

Deportivo Maipu creates 54% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 140 away

1.19

creates per match

0.76

0.86

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Deportivo Maipu

1.19

Gimnasia Jujuy

0.76

allows per match

Deportivo Maipu

0.86

Gimnasia Jujuy

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par

Gimnasia Jujuy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maipu ↓

Gimnasia Jujuy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Maipu or draw

76%

Deportivo Maipu or Gimnasia Jujuy

71%

Draw or Gimnasia Jujuy

53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+

21%

Gimnasia Jujuy wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals

13%

Gimnasia Jujuy 1+ goals

56%

Gimnasia Jujuy 2+ goals

19%

Gimnasia Jujuy 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)

66%

Gimnasia Jujuy (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maipu at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.86 · 102 matches

Gimnasia Jujuy away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.31 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maipu attack 1.19 + Gimnasia Jujuy defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gimnasia Jujuy attack 0.76 + Deportivo Maipu defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Maipu scores more

47%

level

29%

Gimnasia Jujuy scores more

24%

Deportivo Maipu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Maipu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

F. Maidana

35'

A. Manzur

46'

E. González← L. Chiozza

46'

F. Barrientos← F. Maidana

55'

M. Egel

57'

M. Viguet← I. González

64'

F. Brandán

65'

L. Paredes← L. Herrera

66'

G. Klusener← I. Enríquez

66'

E. Almirón← F. Montero

67'

N. Casasola← F. Brandán

71'

N. Casasola

75'

P. Arganaraz

75'

G. Rodríguez← J. Tévez

76'

S. Moyano

83'

A. Abet← A. Argañaraz

86'

89'

90+2'

90+1'

Deportivo

Gimnasia

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: L. Garcia

57'▲M. Viguet←▼I. González

65'▲L. Paredes←▼L. Herrera

66'▲G. Klusener←▼I. Enríquez

66'▲E. Almirón←▼F. Montero

86'▲S. Olano←▼S. Moyano

Deportivo Maipu substitutes

ViguetParedesKlusenerAlmirónOlanoRamírezAgüeroRehakVera

Manager: M. Gómez

46'▲E. González←▼L. Chiozza

46'▲F. Barrientos←▼F. Maidana

67'▲N. Casasola←▼F. Brandán

75'▲G. Rodríguez←▼J. Tévez

83'▲A. Abet←▼A. Argañaraz

Gimnasia Jujuy substitutes

GonzálezBarrientosCasasolaRodríguezAbetRebecchiChiariniGonzálezJuárez

Match Recap: Deportivo Maipu vs Gimnasia Jujuy

Deportivo Maipu beat Gimnasia Jujuy 3-2 in Primera Nacional on April 7, 2023.

Goals: F. Brandán (64'), N. Casasola (71'), S. Moyano (76'), G. Klusener (89'), S. González (90+1').

The match was played at Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti in Maipú, Provincia de Mendoza.

Deportivo Maipu vs Gimnasia Jujuy — Primera Nacional 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Maipu vs Gimnasia Jujuy