Deportivo Maipu 2–2 Estudiantes S.l.

Deportivo Maipu

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Estudiantes S.l.

9/30/2018

Torneo Federal A · Zone 3 - 5Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti (Maipú, Provincia de Mendoza)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Deportivo Maipu53%

×Draw28%

Estudiantes S.l.19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MaipuExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes S.l.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.67

Deportivo Maipu

1.34

Estudiantes S.l.

0.67

Deportivo Maipu creates 100% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 103 away

1.39

creates per match

0.72

0.61

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Deportivo Maipu

1.39

Estudiantes S.l.

0.72

allows per match

Deportivo Maipu

0.61

Estudiantes S.l.

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par

Estudiantes S.l.+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maipu ↓

Estudiantes S.l. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Maipu or draw

81%

Deportivo Maipu or Estudiantes S.l.

72%

Draw or Estudiantes S.l.

47%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+

26%

Estudiantes S.l. wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals

39%

Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals

15%

Estudiantes S.l. 1+ goals

49%

Estudiantes S.l. 2+ goals

15%

Estudiantes S.l. 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)

74%

Estudiantes S.l. (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maipu at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

Estudiantes S.l. away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.30 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maipu attack 1.39 + Estudiantes S.l. defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Estudiantes S.l. attack 0.72 + Deportivo Maipu defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Deportivo Maipu scores more

53%

level

28%

Estudiantes S.l. scores more

19%

Deportivo Maipu at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Deportivo Maipu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff