Deportivo Maipu 1–1 Deportivo Riestra

Deportivo Maipu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Riestra

3/26/2023

Primera Nacional · Group B - 7Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Deportivo Maipu41%

×Draw31%

Deportivo Riestra28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MaipuExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Riestra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.86

Deportivo Maipu

1.11

Deportivo Riestra

0.86

Deportivo Maipu creates 29% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 70 away

1.19

creates per match

0.86

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Deportivo Maipu

1.19

Deportivo Riestra

0.86

allows per match

Deportivo Maipu

0.86

Deportivo Riestra

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par

Deportivo Riestra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maipu ↓

Deportivo Riestra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Maipu or draw

72%

Deportivo Maipu or Deportivo Riestra

69%

Draw or Deportivo Riestra

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+

17%

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals

10%

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals

58%

Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals

21%

Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)

59%

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maipu at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.86 · 102 matches

Deportivo Riestra away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.04 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maipu attack 1.19 + Deportivo Riestra defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Deportivo Riestra attack 0.86 + Deportivo Maipu defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Maipu scores more

41%

level

31%

Deportivo Riestra scores more

28%

Deportivo Maipu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Maipu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff