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Deportivo Maipu vs Chacarita Juniors — Primera Nacional 2026

Deportivo Maipu
Deportivo Maipu
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Chacarita Juniors
Chacarita Juniors
5/31/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 16Stadion Omar Higinio Sperdutti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Deportivo Maipu43%
×Draw30%
Chacarita Juniors27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Maipu
1.19
Chacarita Juniors
0.89

Deportivo Maipu creates 34% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 123 away

creates per match

Deportivo Maipu
1.19
Chacarita Juniors
0.92

allows per match

Deportivo Maipu
0.86
Chacarita Juniors
1.19

finishing

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par
Chacarita Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maipu ↓

Chacarita Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Maipu or draw
73%
Deportivo Maipu or Chacarita Juniors
70%
Draw or Chacarita Juniors
57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+
19%
Chacarita Juniors wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals
12%
Chacarita Juniors 1+ goals
59%
Chacarita Juniors 2+ goals
22%
Chacarita Juniors 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)
61%
Chacarita Juniors (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maipu at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.86 · 102 matches

Chacarita Juniors away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maipu attack 1.19 + Chacarita Juniors defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Chacarita Juniors attack 0.92 + Deportivo Maipu defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Maipu scores more
43%
level
30%
Chacarita Juniors scores more
27%

Deportivo Maipu at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Maipu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Maipu vs Chacarita Juniors

Deportivo Maipu beat Chacarita Juniors 3-2 in Primera Nacional on May 31, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Omar Higinio Sperdutti in Maipu.