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Deportivo Maipu vs CAI — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Maipu
Deportivo Maipu
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CAI
CAI
12/5/2011Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Round 15Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Deportivo Maipu50%
×Draw26%
CAI23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Maipu
1.50
CAI
0.93

Deportivo Maipu creates 61% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 26 away

creates per match

Deportivo Maipu
1.38
CAI
1.23

allows per match

Deportivo Maipu
0.62
CAI
1.62

finishing

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par
CAI+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maipu ↓

CAI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Maipu or draw
77%
Deportivo Maipu or CAI
74%
Draw or CAI
50%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+
26%
CAI wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals
19%
CAI 1+ goals
61%
CAI 2+ goals
24%
CAI 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)
68%
CAI (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maipu at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.62 · 37 matches

CAI away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maipu attack 1.38 + CAI defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

CAI attack 1.23 + Deportivo Maipu defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo Maipu scores more
50%
level
26%
CAI scores more
23%

Deportivo Maipu at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo Maipu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Deportivo Maipu 0–0 CAI

Deportivo Maipu and CAI drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on December 5, 2011.

The match was played at Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti.