Deportivo Maipu 1–2 All Boys: Result & Stats

Deportivo Maipu

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

All Boys

8/4/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 26Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Deportivo Maipu46%

×Draw30%

All Boys24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MaipuExpected goals in this matchAll Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.76

Deportivo Maipu

1.19

All Boys

0.76

Deportivo Maipu creates 57% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 117 away

1.19

creates per match

0.65

0.86

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Deportivo Maipu

1.19

All Boys

0.65

allows per match

Deportivo Maipu

0.86

All Boys

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par

All Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maipu ↓

All Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Maipu or draw

76%

Deportivo Maipu or All Boys

70%

Draw or All Boys

54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+

20%

All Boys wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals

12%

All Boys 1+ goals

53%

All Boys 2+ goals

18%

All Boys 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)

66%

All Boys (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maipu at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.86 · 102 matches

All Boys away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.19 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maipu attack 1.19 + All Boys defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

All Boys attack 0.65 + Deportivo Maipu defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Maipu scores more

46%

level

30%

All Boys scores more

24%

Deportivo Maipu at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Maipu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Maipu vs All Boys

All Boys beat Deportivo Maipu 2-1 in Primera Nacional on August 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti in Maipú, Provincia de Mendoza.

Deportivo Maipu vs All Boys — Primera Nacional 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Maipu vs All Boys