Deportivo Madryn 1–1 Sportivo Peñarol

Deportivo Madryn

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sportivo Peñarol

7/11/2021

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 12Estadio Abel Sastre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Deportivo Madryn58%

×Draw25%

Sportivo Peñarol17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MadrynExpected goals in this matchSportivo Peñarol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.72

Deportivo Madryn

1.58

Sportivo Peñarol

0.72

Deportivo Madryn creates 119% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 62 away

1.51

creates per match

0.87

0.56

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Deportivo Madryn

1.51

Sportivo Peñarol

0.87

allows per match

Deportivo Madryn

0.56

Sportivo Peñarol

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Madryn+0.00on par

Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Madryn ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Madryn or draw

83%

Deportivo Madryn or Sportivo Peñarol

75%

Draw or Sportivo Peñarol

42%

Winning margin

Deportivo Madryn wins by 2+

31%

Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Deportivo Madryn 1+ goals

79%

Deportivo Madryn 2+ goals

47%

Deportivo Madryn 3+ goals

21%

Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals

51%

Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals

16%

Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Madryn (draw refunded)

77%

Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Madryn at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.56 · 45 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Madryn attack 1.51 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.87 + Deportivo Madryn defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Deportivo Madryn scores more

58%

level

25%

Sportivo Peñarol scores more

17%

Deportivo Madryn at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Deportivo Madryn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff