Deportivo Madryn vs Godoy Cruz

Deportivo Madryn

Preview

22:00

Godoy Cruz

7/21/2026

Primera Nacional · Round 21Estadio Abel Sastre

52%

Deportivo Madryn

model favours

52%31%17%

Deportivo Madryn score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

74%

under 2.5 goals

30%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Deportivo Madryn52%

×Draw31%

Godoy Cruz17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MadrynExpected goals in this matchGodoy Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.56

Deportivo Madryn

1.19

Godoy Cruz

0.56

Deportivo Madryn creates 112% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 10 away

1.27

creates per match

0.40

0.72

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Deportivo Madryn

1.27

Godoy Cruz

0.40

allows per match

Deportivo Madryn

0.72

Godoy Cruz

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Madryn+0.00on par

Godoy Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Madryn ↓

Godoy Cruz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

52%48%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Deportivo Madryn or draw

83%

Deportivo Madryn or Godoy Cruz

69%

Draw or Godoy Cruz

48%

Winning margin

Deportivo Madryn wins by 2+

23%

Godoy Cruz wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Deportivo Madryn 1+ goals

70%

Deportivo Madryn 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo Madryn 3+ goals

12%

Godoy Cruz 1+ goals

43%

Godoy Cruz 2+ goals

11%

Godoy Cruz 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Madryn (draw refunded)

75%

Godoy Cruz (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Madryn at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.72 · 86 matches

Godoy Cruz away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Madryn attack 1.27 + Godoy Cruz defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Godoy Cruz attack 0.40 + Deportivo Madryn defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportivo Madryn scores more

52%

level

31%

Godoy Cruz scores more

17%

Deportivo Madryn at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportivo Madryn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 80% of Deportivo Madryn’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Madryn

DLWDD

Cruz

WLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff