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Deportivo Madryn vs Gimnasia Y Tiro — Primera Nacional 2026

Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Madryn
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Gimnasia Y Tiro
8/24/2025Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 28Estadio Abel Sastre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Deportivo Madryn46%
×Draw32%
Gimnasia Y Tiro22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Madryn
1.10
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.65

Deportivo Madryn creates 69% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 47 away

creates per match

Deportivo Madryn
1.27
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.57

allows per match

Deportivo Madryn
0.72
Gimnasia Y Tiro
0.94

finishing

Deportivo Madryn+0.00on par
Gimnasia Y Tiro+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Madryn ↓

Gimnasia Y Tiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Deportivo Madryn or draw
78%
Deportivo Madryn or Gimnasia Y Tiro
68%
Draw or Gimnasia Y Tiro
54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Madryn wins by 2+
19%
Gimnasia Y Tiro wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Madryn 1+ goals
67%
Deportivo Madryn 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo Madryn 3+ goals
10%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 1+ goals
48%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 2+ goals
14%
Gimnasia Y Tiro 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Madryn (draw refunded)
68%
Gimnasia Y Tiro (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Madryn at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.72 · 86 matches

Gimnasia Y Tiro away — creates 0.57, concedes 0.94 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Madryn attack 1.27 + Gimnasia Y Tiro defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Gimnasia Y Tiro attack 0.57 + Deportivo Madryn defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Madryn scores more
46%
level
32%
Gimnasia Y Tiro scores more
22%

Deportivo Madryn at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Madryn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Deportivo Madryn 2–0 Gimnasia Y Tiro

Deportivo Madryn beat Gimnasia Y Tiro 2-0 in Primera Nacional on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Abel Sastre in Puerto Madryn.