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Deportivo Madryn vs Gimnasia M. — Primera Nacional 2026

Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Madryn
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnasia M.
Gimnasia M.
7/21/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 24Estadio Abel Sastre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Deportivo Madryn43%
×Draw31%
Gimnasia M.26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Madryn
1.13
Gimnasia M.
0.82

Deportivo Madryn creates 38% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 119 away

creates per match

Deportivo Madryn
1.27
Gimnasia M.
0.93

allows per match

Deportivo Madryn
0.72
Gimnasia M.
0.99

finishing

Deportivo Madryn+0.00on par
Gimnasia M.+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Madryn ↓

Gimnasia M. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Madryn or draw
74%
Deportivo Madryn or Gimnasia M.
69%
Draw or Gimnasia M.
57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Madryn wins by 2+
18%
Gimnasia M. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Madryn 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Madryn 2+ goals
31%
Deportivo Madryn 3+ goals
11%
Gimnasia M. 1+ goals
56%
Gimnasia M. 2+ goals
20%
Gimnasia M. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Madryn (draw refunded)
62%
Gimnasia M. (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Madryn at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.72 · 86 matches

Gimnasia M. away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.99 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Madryn attack 1.27 + Gimnasia M. defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Gimnasia M. attack 0.93 + Deportivo Madryn defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Madryn scores more
43%
level
31%
Gimnasia M. scores more
26%

Deportivo Madryn at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Madryn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Madryn vs Gimnasia M.

Gimnasia M. beat Deportivo Madryn 2-0 in Primera Nacional on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Abel Sastre in Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut.