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Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Roca — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Madryn
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Deportivo Roca
Deportivo Roca
3/17/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 8Estadio Abel Sastre (Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Deportivo Madryn64%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Roca9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Madryn
1.42
Deportivo Roca
0.37

Deportivo Madryn creates 284% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 12 away

creates per match

Deportivo Madryn
1.51
Deportivo Roca
0.17

allows per match

Deportivo Madryn
0.56
Deportivo Roca
1.33

finishing

Deportivo Madryn+0.00on par
Deportivo Roca+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

77%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Madryn ↓

Deportivo Roca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Deportivo Madryn or draw
91%
Deportivo Madryn or Deportivo Roca
73%
Draw or Deportivo Roca
36%

Winning margin

Deportivo Madryn wins by 2+
33%
Deportivo Roca wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Deportivo Madryn 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Madryn 2+ goals
41%
Deportivo Madryn 3+ goals
17%
Deportivo Roca 1+ goals
31%
Deportivo Roca 2+ goals
5%
Deportivo Roca 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Madryn (draw refunded)
87%
Deportivo Roca (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Madryn at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.56 · 45 matches

Deportivo Roca away — creates 0.17, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Madryn attack 1.51 + Deportivo Roca defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Deportivo Roca attack 0.17 + Deportivo Madryn defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Deportivo Madryn scores more
64%
level
27%
Deportivo Roca scores more
9%

Deportivo Madryn at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Deportivo Madryn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Deportivo Madryn 4–0 Deportivo Roca

Deportivo Madryn beat Deportivo Roca 4-0 in Torneo Federal A on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Abel Sastre (Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut).