Deportivo Madryn 1–1 Deportivo Moron

Deportivo Madryn

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Moron

2/21/2026

Primera Nacional · Round 2Estadio Abel Sastre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Deportivo Madryn45%

×Draw31%

Deportivo Moron24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MadrynExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Moron

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.75

Deportivo Madryn

1.16

Deportivo Moron

0.75

Deportivo Madryn creates 55% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 130 away

1.27

creates per match

0.78

0.72

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Deportivo Madryn

1.27

Deportivo Moron

0.78

allows per match

Deportivo Madryn

0.72

Deportivo Moron

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Madryn+0.00on par

Deportivo Moron+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Madryn ↓

Deportivo Moron →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Deportivo Madryn or draw

76%

Deportivo Madryn or Deportivo Moron

69%

Draw or Deportivo Moron

55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Madryn wins by 2+

20%

Deportivo Moron wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deportivo Madryn 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo Madryn 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Madryn 3+ goals

11%

Deportivo Moron 1+ goals

53%

Deportivo Moron 2+ goals

17%

Deportivo Moron 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Madryn (draw refunded)

66%

Deportivo Moron (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Madryn at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.72 · 86 matches

Deportivo Moron away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.04 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Madryn attack 1.27 + Deportivo Moron defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16

Deportivo Moron attack 0.78 + Deportivo Madryn defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Madryn scores more

45%

level

31%

Deportivo Moron scores more

24%

Deportivo Madryn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Madryn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff