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Deportivo Madryn vs CAI — Torneo Federal A 2018

Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Madryn
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
CAI
CAI
J. Bordaberry 84'
M. Garrido 69' (pen)
G. Bustos 30'
M. Brito 43'
L. Velázquez 13'
11/2/2014Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Round 13Estadio Coliseo del Golfo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Deportivo Madryn54%
×Draw25%
CAI21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Madryn
1.61
CAI
0.90

Deportivo Madryn creates 79% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 26 away

creates per match

Deportivo Madryn
1.60
CAI
1.23

allows per match

Deportivo Madryn
0.57
CAI
1.62

finishing

Deportivo Madryn+0.00on par
CAI+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Madryn ↓

CAI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Madryn or draw
79%
Deportivo Madryn or CAI
75%
Draw or CAI
46%

Winning margin

Deportivo Madryn wins by 2+
29%
CAI wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Madryn 1+ goals
80%
Deportivo Madryn 2+ goals
48%
Deportivo Madryn 3+ goals
22%
CAI 1+ goals
59%
CAI 2+ goals
23%
CAI 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Madryn (draw refunded)
72%
CAI (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Madryn at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.57 · 47 matches

CAI away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Madryn attack 1.60 + CAI defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.61

CAI attack 1.23 + Deportivo Madryn defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deportivo Madryn scores more
54%
level
25%
CAI scores more
21%

Deportivo Madryn at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Deportivo Madryn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
L. Velázquez
30'
G. Bustos
43'
M. Brito
69'
M. GarridoPenalty
84'
J. Bordaberry

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Deportivo Madryn 3–2 CAI

Deportivo Madryn beat CAI 3-2 in Torneo Federal A on November 2, 2014.

Goals: L. Velázquez (13'), G. Bustos (30'), M. Brito (43'), M. Garrido (69' pen), J. Bordaberry (84').

The match was played at Estadio Coliseo del Golfo in Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut.