Deportivo Madryn vs Agropecuario — Primera Nacional 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 32+ matches
Deportivo Madryn54%
Agropecuario19%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Deportivo Madryn creates 93% more chances
Season form · 33 home / 32 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportivo Madryn ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportivo Madryn at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.67 · 33 matches
Agropecuario away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportivo Madryn attack 1.45 + Agropecuario defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.43
Agropecuario attack 0.81 + Deportivo Madryn defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Deportivo Madryn at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Deportivo Madryn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
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San Martin Tucuman
Deportivo Maipu
Patronato
Colegiales
All Boys
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Ferro Carril Oeste
Los Andes
Club Atlético Güemes
Quilmes
Almagro
Arsenal Sarandi
Alvarado
Gimnasia M.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
CA Estudiantes
Deportivo Moron
Gimnasia Jujuy
TemperleyAgropecuario
Chaco For Ever
Chacarita Juniors
Defensores De Belgrano
Nueva Chicago
San Telmo
Atletico Mitre
Almirante Brown
Central Norte
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Talleres Remedios
Defensores UnidosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Deportivo Madryn host Agropecuario on Saturday, 12 February 2022 at 20:00. The match is part of the Primera Nacional 2026/2027 season.
Primera Nacional: Deportivo Madryn 1–0 Agropecuario
Deportivo Madryn beat Agropecuario 1-0 in Primera Nacional on February 12, 2022.
Goals: R. Castillo (90+1').
The match was played at Estadio Abel Sastre in Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut.