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Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Union Huaral — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Llacuabamba
Deportivo Llacuabamba
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Union Huaral
Union Huaral
7/3/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 1Estadio Municipal Otuzco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Deportivo Llacuabamba53%
×Draw23%
Union Huaral24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.82
Union Huaral
1.13

Deportivo Llacuabamba creates 61% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 66 away

creates per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba
2.00
Union Huaral
1.32

allows per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba
0.94
Union Huaral
1.64

finishing

Deportivo Llacuabamba+0.00on par
Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Llacuabamba ↓

Union Huaral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo Llacuabamba or draw
76%
Deportivo Llacuabamba or Union Huaral
77%
Draw or Union Huaral
47%

Winning margin

Deportivo Llacuabamba wins by 2+
30%
Union Huaral wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Llacuabamba 1+ goals
84%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 2+ goals
54%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 3+ goals
27%
Union Huaral 1+ goals
68%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
31%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Llacuabamba (draw refunded)
69%
Union Huaral (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Llacuabamba at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Llacuabamba attack 2.00 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.82

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + Deportivo Llacuabamba defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Deportivo Llacuabamba scores more
53%
level
23%
Union Huaral scores more
24%

Deportivo Llacuabamba at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Deportivo Llacuabamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportivo Llacuabamba 3–1 Union Huaral

Deportivo Llacuabamba beat Union Huaral 3-1 in Segunda División on July 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Otuzco in Otuzco.