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Deportivo Llacuabamba vs San Marcos — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Llacuabamba
Deportivo Llacuabamba
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
San Marcos
San Marcos
7/13/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio Municipal de Huamachuco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Deportivo Llacuabamba61%
×Draw22%
San Marcos17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.91
San Marcos
0.88

Deportivo Llacuabamba creates 117% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 22 away

creates per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba
2.00
San Marcos
0.82

allows per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba
0.94
San Marcos
1.82

finishing

Deportivo Llacuabamba+0.00on par
San Marcos+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Llacuabamba ↓

San Marcos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo Llacuabamba or draw
83%
Deportivo Llacuabamba or San Marcos
78%
Draw or San Marcos
39%

Winning margin

Deportivo Llacuabamba wins by 2+
37%
San Marcos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo Llacuabamba 1+ goals
85%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 2+ goals
57%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 3+ goals
30%
San Marcos 1+ goals
59%
San Marcos 2+ goals
22%
San Marcos 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Llacuabamba (draw refunded)
79%
San Marcos (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Llacuabamba at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

San Marcos away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Llacuabamba attack 2.00 + San Marcos defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.91

San Marcos attack 0.82 + Deportivo Llacuabamba defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Deportivo Llacuabamba scores more
61%
level
22%
San Marcos scores more
17%

Deportivo Llacuabamba at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Deportivo Llacuabamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Llacuabamba vs San Marcos

Deportivo Llacuabamba and San Marcos drew 2-2 in Segunda División on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Huamachuco in Huamachuco.