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Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Deportivo Coopsol — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Llacuabamba
Deportivo Llacuabamba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
6/26/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 13Estadio Municipal Otuzco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Deportivo Llacuabamba55%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Coopsol22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.81
Deportivo Coopsol
1.06

Deportivo Llacuabamba creates 71% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 91 away

creates per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba
2.00
Deportivo Coopsol
1.18

allows per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba
0.94
Deportivo Coopsol
1.63

finishing

Deportivo Llacuabamba+0.00on par
Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Llacuabamba ↓

Deportivo Coopsol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo Llacuabamba or draw
78%
Deportivo Llacuabamba or Deportivo Coopsol
77%
Draw or Deportivo Coopsol
45%

Winning margin

Deportivo Llacuabamba wins by 2+
31%
Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Llacuabamba 1+ goals
84%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 2+ goals
54%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 3+ goals
27%
Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Llacuabamba (draw refunded)
71%
Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Llacuabamba at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

Deportivo Coopsol away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Llacuabamba attack 2.00 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.81

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.18 + Deportivo Llacuabamba defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Deportivo Llacuabamba scores more
55%
level
23%
Deportivo Coopsol scores more
22%

Deportivo Llacuabamba at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportivo Llacuabamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Deportivo Coopsol

Deportivo Llacuabamba beat Deportivo Coopsol 2-1 in Segunda División on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Otuzco in Otuzco.