Deportivo Liberacion 0–0 Sportivo Trinidense

Deportivo Liberacion

FT

0 – 0

Sportivo Trinidense

8/15/2018

Division Intermedia · Round 23Estadio Atanacio Villagra (Liberación)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Liberacion39%

×Draw25%

Sportivo Trinidense36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo LiberacionExpected goals in this matchSportivo Trinidense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.37

Deportivo Liberacion

1.43

Sportivo Trinidense

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 62 away

1.53

creates per match

1.34

1.40

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Deportivo Liberacion

1.53

Sportivo Trinidense

1.34

allows per match

Deportivo Liberacion

1.40

Sportivo Trinidense

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Liberacion+0.00on par

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Liberacion ↓

Sportivo Trinidense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo Liberacion or draw

64%

Deportivo Liberacion or Sportivo Trinidense

75%

Draw or Sportivo Trinidense

61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Liberacion wins by 2+

18%

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Deportivo Liberacion 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Liberacion 2+ goals

42%

Deportivo Liberacion 3+ goals

17%

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals

75%

Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals

40%

Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Liberacion (draw refunded)

52%

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Liberacion at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Sportivo Trinidense away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Liberacion attack 1.53 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.34 + Deportivo Liberacion defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Liberacion scores more

39%

level

25%

Sportivo Trinidense scores more

36%

Deportivo Liberacion at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Liberacion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff