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Deportivo Liberacion vs Sportivo Iteno — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Liberacion
Deportivo Liberacion
FT
3 – 4
Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
4/29/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 7Estadio Atanacio Villagra (Liberación)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Liberacion49%
×Draw24%
Sportivo Iteno27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Liberacion
1.67
Sportivo Iteno
1.19

Deportivo Liberacion creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 63 away

creates per match

Deportivo Liberacion
1.53
Sportivo Iteno
0.98

allows per match

Deportivo Liberacion
1.40
Sportivo Iteno
1.81

finishing

Deportivo Liberacion+0.00on par
Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Liberacion ↓

Sportivo Iteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo Liberacion or draw
73%
Deportivo Liberacion or Sportivo Iteno
76%
Draw or Sportivo Iteno
51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Liberacion wins by 2+
26%
Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Liberacion 1+ goals
81%
Deportivo Liberacion 2+ goals
50%
Deportivo Liberacion 3+ goals
23%
Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
70%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
33%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Liberacion (draw refunded)
64%
Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Liberacion at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Sportivo Iteno away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Liberacion attack 1.53 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.98 + Deportivo Liberacion defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Liberacion scores more
49%
level
24%
Sportivo Iteno scores more
27%

Deportivo Liberacion at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Liberacion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Deportivo Liberacion 3–4 Sportivo Iteno

Sportivo Iteno beat Deportivo Liberacion 4-3 in Division Intermedia on April 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Atanacio Villagra (Liberación).