Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Liberacion vs Rubio NU — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Liberacion
Deportivo Liberacion
FT
1 – 0
Rubio NU
Rubio NU
3/18/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 1Estadio Atanacio Villagra (Liberación)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Liberacion40%
×Draw26%
Rubio NU34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Liberacion
1.37
Rubio NU
1.25

Deportivo Liberacion creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 107 away

creates per match

Deportivo Liberacion
1.53
Rubio NU
1.09

allows per match

Deportivo Liberacion
1.40
Rubio NU
1.21

finishing

Deportivo Liberacion+0.00on par
Rubio NU+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Liberacion ↓

Rubio NU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Liberacion or draw
66%
Deportivo Liberacion or Rubio NU
74%
Draw or Rubio NU
60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Liberacion wins by 2+
18%
Rubio NU wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Deportivo Liberacion 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Liberacion 2+ goals
40%
Deportivo Liberacion 3+ goals
16%
Rubio NU 1+ goals
71%
Rubio NU 2+ goals
36%
Rubio NU 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Liberacion (draw refunded)
54%
Rubio NU (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Liberacion at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Rubio NU away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Liberacion attack 1.53 + Rubio NU defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.37

Rubio NU attack 1.09 + Deportivo Liberacion defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Liberacion scores more
40%
level
26%
Rubio NU scores more
34%

Deportivo Liberacion at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Liberacion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Liberacion vs Rubio NU

Deportivo Liberacion beat Rubio NU 1-0 in Division Intermedia on March 18, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Atanacio Villagra (Liberación).