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Deportivo Liberacion vs Fernando De La Mora — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Liberacion
Deportivo Liberacion
FT
1 – 0
Fernando De La Mora
Fernando De La Mora
6/3/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 13Estadio Atanacio Villagra (Liberación)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Liberacion40%
×Draw26%
Fernando De La Mora34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Liberacion
1.40
Fernando De La Mora
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 113 away

creates per match

Deportivo Liberacion
1.53
Fernando De La Mora
1.16

allows per match

Deportivo Liberacion
1.40
Fernando De La Mora
1.27

finishing

Deportivo Liberacion+0.00on par
Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Liberacion ↓

Fernando De La Mora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Liberacion or draw
66%
Deportivo Liberacion or Fernando De La Mora
74%
Draw or Fernando De La Mora
60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Liberacion wins by 2+
19%
Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Deportivo Liberacion 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Liberacion 2+ goals
41%
Deportivo Liberacion 3+ goals
17%
Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals
72%
Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals
37%
Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Liberacion (draw refunded)
54%
Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Liberacion at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Fernando De La Mora away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Liberacion attack 1.53 + Fernando De La Mora defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.16 + Deportivo Liberacion defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Liberacion scores more
40%
level
26%
Fernando De La Mora scores more
34%

Deportivo Liberacion at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Liberacion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Deportivo Liberacion 1–0 Fernando De La Mora

Deportivo Liberacion beat Fernando De La Mora 1-0 in Division Intermedia on June 3, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Atanacio Villagra (Liberación).