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Deportivo Liberacion vs Deportivo Caaguazu — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Liberacion
Deportivo Liberacion
FT
2 – 1
Deportivo Caaguazu
Deportivo Caaguazu
8/19/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 25Estadio Atanacio Villagra (Liberación)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Liberacion53%
×Draw24%
Deportivo Caaguazu23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Liberacion
1.73
Deportivo Caaguazu
1.06

Deportivo Liberacion creates 63% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Deportivo Liberacion
1.53
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.73

allows per match

Deportivo Liberacion
1.40
Deportivo Caaguazu
1.93

finishing

Deportivo Liberacion+0.00on par
Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Liberacion ↓

Deportivo Caaguazu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo Liberacion or draw
77%
Deportivo Liberacion or Deportivo Caaguazu
76%
Draw or Deportivo Caaguazu
47%

Winning margin

Deportivo Liberacion wins by 2+
29%
Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Liberacion 1+ goals
82%
Deportivo Liberacion 2+ goals
52%
Deportivo Liberacion 3+ goals
25%
Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Liberacion (draw refunded)
70%
Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Liberacion at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Deportivo Caaguazu away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Liberacion attack 1.53 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.73

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 0.73 + Deportivo Liberacion defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Deportivo Liberacion scores more
53%
level
24%
Deportivo Caaguazu scores more
23%

Deportivo Liberacion at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Deportivo Liberacion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Liberacion vs Deportivo Caaguazu

Deportivo Liberacion beat Deportivo Caaguazu 2-1 in Division Intermedia on August 19, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Atanacio Villagra (Liberación).