Deportivo Liberacion 1–2 Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Deportivo Liberacion

FT

1 – 2

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

7/1/2018

Division Intermedia · Round 17Estadio Atanacio Villagra (Liberación)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Liberacion37%

×Draw26%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo LiberacionExpected goals in this matchClub Sp. San Lorenzo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.30

Deportivo Liberacion

1.29

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 92 away

1.53

creates per match

1.20

1.40

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Deportivo Liberacion

1.53

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.20

allows per match

Deportivo Liberacion

1.40

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Liberacion+0.00on par

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Liberacion ↓

Club Sp. San Lorenzo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Liberacion or draw

63%

Deportivo Liberacion or Club Sp. San Lorenzo

74%

Draw or Club Sp. San Lorenzo

63%

Winning margin

Deportivo Liberacion wins by 2+

16%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Deportivo Liberacion 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo Liberacion 2+ goals

37%

Deportivo Liberacion 3+ goals

14%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals

73%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals

37%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Liberacion (draw refunded)

50%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Liberacion at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Liberacion attack 1.53 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.20 + Deportivo Liberacion defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Liberacion scores more

37%

level

26%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more

37%

Deportivo Liberacion at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Liberacion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff