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Deportivo Las Sabanas vs Real Estelí — Primera Division 2019

Deportivo Las Sabanas
Deportivo Las Sabanas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Estelí
Real Estelí
10/21/2019Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 12Estadio Solidaridad Augusto Cesar Mendoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Deportivo Las Sabanas28%
×Draw28%
Real Estelí43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Las Sabanas
0.98
Real Estelí
1.28

Real Estelí creates 31% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 150 away

creates per match

Deportivo Las Sabanas
0.94
Real Estelí
1.67

allows per match

Deportivo Las Sabanas
0.89
Real Estelí
1.03

finishing

Deportivo Las Sabanas+0.00on par
Real Estelí+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Las Sabanas ↓

Real Estelí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Las Sabanas or draw
57%
Deportivo Las Sabanas or Real Estelí
72%
Draw or Real Estelí
72%

Winning margin

Deportivo Las Sabanas wins by 2+
10%
Real Estelí wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Deportivo Las Sabanas 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 3+ goals
8%
Real Estelí 1+ goals
72%
Real Estelí 2+ goals
37%
Real Estelí 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Las Sabanas (draw refunded)
40%
Real Estelí (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Las Sabanas at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Real Estelí away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.03 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Las Sabanas attack 0.94 + Real Estelí defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Real Estelí attack 1.67 + Deportivo Las Sabanas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Las Sabanas scores more
28%
level
28%
Real Estelí scores more
43%

Real Estelí at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Estelí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Deportivo Las Sabanas 1–0 Real Estelí

Deportivo Las Sabanas beat Real Estelí 1-0 in Primera Division on October 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Solidaridad Augusto Cesar Mendoza in Somoto.