Deportivo Las Sabanas 1–1 Diriangén: Result & Stats

Deportivo Las Sabanas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Diriangén

8/4/2019

Primera Division · Apertura - 2Estadio Solidaridad Augusto Cesar Mendoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Deportivo Las Sabanas29%

×Draw29%

Diriangén42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Las SabanasExpected goals in this matchDiriangén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.25

Deportivo Las Sabanas

0.99

Diriangén

1.25

Diriangén creates 26% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 150 away

0.94

creates per match

1.61

0.89

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Deportivo Las Sabanas

0.94

Diriangén

1.61

allows per match

Deportivo Las Sabanas

0.89

Diriangén

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Las Sabanas+0.00on par

Diriangén+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Las Sabanas ↓

Diriangén →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Las Sabanas or draw

58%

Deportivo Las Sabanas or Diriangén

71%

Draw or Diriangén

71%

Winning margin

Deportivo Las Sabanas wins by 2+

11%

Diriangén wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Deportivo Las Sabanas 1+ goals

63%

Deportivo Las Sabanas 2+ goals

26%

Deportivo Las Sabanas 3+ goals

8%

Diriangén 1+ goals

71%

Diriangén 2+ goals

36%

Diriangén 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Las Sabanas (draw refunded)

41%

Diriangén (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Las Sabanas at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Diriangén away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.04 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Las Sabanas attack 0.94 + Diriangén defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Diriangén attack 1.61 + Deportivo Las Sabanas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Las Sabanas scores more

29%

level

29%

Diriangén scores more

42%

Diriangén at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Diriangén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff